Nawaf's Notes: The (Arab) World According To Trump
Examining the Implications: How a Second Trump Term Could Reshape Geopolitical Dynamics and Regional Alliances in the Arab World.
The following is based on the author's original Arabic article published in Qatar’s Al-Raya Newspaper on June 5, 2024, 1…
As the possibility of a second Trump administration looms, the Arab world braces for potential impacts that could redefine regional dynamics. Donald Trump’s first term saw dramatic shifts in US foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East. His recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital and endorsement of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights strained Israeli-Palestinian relations and diminished the US’ role as an impartial mediator. The potential for these policies to continue or even intensify under a second Trump term raises significant concerns across the Arab world.
A second Trump term is likely to continue this pro-Israel trajectory, possibly sidelining Palestinian aspirations further. Trump's recent rhetoric indicates a harsher stance towards Palestinian supporters in the US, suggesting an intensified pro-Israel posture that could heighten tensions not only between Israelis and Palestinians but also within the broader Arab community, exacerbating divisions and fueling resentment. This shift in US policy could also embolden Israeli hardliners, potentially leading to further annexation of Palestinian territories and increased settlement activities, which would further diminish the prospects for a two-state solution.
The impact of Trump's policies on the Palestinian issue cannot be understated. The US recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the relocation of the US embassy were seen as significant blows to the Palestinian cause. These actions effectively removed a key bargaining chip from peace negotiations and signaled a shift in US policy away from neutrality. A second Trump administration could see further steps in this direction, such as the possible recognition of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, which would undermine international law and further isolate Palestinians. This could lead to increased unrest and violence, not just in the occupied territories but across the Arab world, as populations react to perceived injustices.
Previous US administrations, while supportive of Israel, maintained a degree of balance aimed at fostering peace negotiations. The Clinton administration's efforts at Camp David and the Bush administration's support for the Roadmap for Peace are notable examples. However, Trump's policies have decisively shifted the balance towards unequivocal support for Israeli positions, eroding the prospects for a negotiated settlement.
Trump's transactional approach to international relations, valuing allies for their economic and strategic benefits, was evident in his facilitation of the Abraham Accords. These agreements normalized relations between Israel and several Arab countries, reshaping regional dynamics. However, they also underscored a shift towards alliances driven by political expediency rather than resolving long-standing grievances. The Accords, while celebrated by some for fostering diplomatic relations, were criticized for sidelining the Palestinian issue and failing to address the core disputes that have long fueled instability in the region.
The Abraham Accords marked a significant shift in the Arab world's approach to Israel. Countries like the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco moved towards normalization, driven by various strategic and economic incentives. However, this move also revealed underlying fractures within the Arab world. Some countries, like Qatar and Algeria, remained steadfast in their support for the Palestinian cause, highlighting a growing divergence in regional politics. A second Trump administration could push more Arab countries towards normalization with Israel, further complicating the regional landscape and potentially leading to new alliances and rivalries.
Critically, the Abraham Accords have failed to secure Israel or bring peace to the Middle East in any meaningful way. Beyond providing a few gates for El Al at some airports, the Accords have not addressed the underlying issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They have neither reduced violence nor facilitated a genuine peace process. Instead, they have created a veneer of peace while leaving core issues unresolved, potentially setting the stage for future conflicts.
His hardline stance on Iran, marked by the withdrawal from the JCPOA and stringent sanctions, significantly altered the regional power balance. A renewed Trump administration would likely double down on this strategy, increasing economic pressure on Iran and potentially escalating military confrontations. This could further destabilize the Gulf region, affecting global oil markets and the economies of neighboring Arab countries. The heightened risk of conflict might push Arab Gulf states to seek closer security ties with other global powers, potentially leading to a more fragmented international response to Middle Eastern issues.
The maximum pressure campaign against Iran not only strained US-Iran relations but also impacted Iran's neighbors and trading partners. Countries like Iraq, which have significant economic and political ties with Iran, found themselves in a precarious position. Increased US sanctions under a second Trump administration could further strain Iraq’s economy and political stability, potentially leading to increased sectarian tensions and violence. Moreover, the potential for military conflict, whether through direct confrontation or proxy wars, could destabilize the entire region, affecting everything from oil production to refugee flows.
Global powers like Russia and China are likely to respond to a renewed US-Iran conflict by increasing their influence in the region. Russia's military presence in Syria and its strategic partnership with Iran could lead to heightened tensions with the US, while China’s economic investments through the Belt and Road Initiative could further complicate the geopolitical landscape. A second Trump term could thus accelerate a realignment of global power structures in the Middle East.
Furthermore, Trump’s policies towards Arab nations often reflect a disdain for multilateralism and a preference for bilateral deals. This approach might undermine collective Arab efforts to address regional issues, from the Syrian conflict to the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. The lack of a cohesive US strategy could leave Arab states grappling with these challenges without consistent support or mediation from Washington. The weakening of multilateral frameworks could lead to increased competition among Arab states, each pursuing individual interests rather than a unified regional strategy.
In Syria, the Trump administration's inconsistent policies created a vacuum that various actors, including Russia, Iran, and Turkey, have sought to fill. A second Trump term could see further disengagement from multilateral efforts to resolve the conflict, potentially prolonging the civil war and complicating humanitarian efforts. The Syrian conflict's spillover effects, including refugee crises and the spread of extremist ideologies, would continue to impact neighboring countries, exacerbating regional instability.
Including statistics and data on the humanitarian impact in Syria, such as the number of displaced persons and the extent of infrastructure damage, would illustrate the severity of the crisis. Additionally, incorporating perspectives from Syrian refugees or aid organizations could humanize the narrative and highlight the urgent need for a comprehensive solution.
In Yemen, the humanitarian crisis remains one of the most pressing issues. The Trump administration's support for the Saudi-led coalition has been controversial, with critics highlighting the devastating impact on civilian populations. A second Trump term might see continued arms sales and support for the coalition, potentially prolonging the conflict and worsening the humanitarian situation. This could lead to further destabilization in the Arabian Peninsula, with significant implications for regional security and economic stability.
In terms of economic policies, Trump’s focus on America First could have significant repercussions for Arab economies that are heavily reliant on trade with the US. His protectionist measures and potential withdrawal from international agreements could disrupt trade flows, leading to regional economic uncertainty. Arab countries may need to diversify their economic partnerships and reduce dependency on the US market to mitigate these risks. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, in particular, might look towards strengthening economic ties with China, India, and the European Union to ensure economic stability and growth.
The potential continuation of Trump's travel bans and immigration restrictions could also affect the sizeable Arab diaspora in the US, straining familial and economic ties. The Arab world’s response to a second Trump administration would need to consider these socio-economic dimensions, which impact not only diplomatic relations but also the everyday lives of millions of people. Remittances from the Arab diaspora in the US play a crucial role in the economies of many Arab countries, and any policies that restrict this flow could have significant economic consequences.
Exploring the potential for increased remittances from alternative markets if US restrictions tighten would provide a broader economic perspective. For example, countries in the Gulf could bolster their labor markets to absorb more workers from the affected nations, thereby stabilizing remittance flows.
Moreover, Trump's immigration policies have broader implications for US-Arab relations. The travel bans, often perceived as discriminatory against Muslim-majority countries, have fueled anti-American sentiments in the Arab world. A second Trump term could see the expansion of these policies, further straining diplomatic relations and affecting people-to-people ties. This would also impact educational exchanges, business ventures, and cultural interactions, contributing to a growing divide between the US and the Arab world.
In conclusion, a second Trump administration could reinforce divisive policies and intensify existing conflicts in the Arab world. While some regimes might welcome his straightforward, deal-making approach, the broader implications for regional stability, Palestinian rights, and US-Arab relations could be profoundly unsettling. As the Arab world navigates this uncertain future, the need for strategic autonomy and diversified alliances becomes ever more apparent. Arab states may increasingly look towards other global powers, such as China and Russia, for support, thereby altering the geopolitical landscape and reducing US influence in the region.
The evolving dynamics will also challenge Arab leadership to balance internal stability with external pressures. Populations within these countries, particularly the youth, who are more connected and informed than ever, will demand accountability and more significant socio-political reforms. The leadership’s ability to navigate these demands while managing external pressures from a potential Trump administration will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the Arab world.
The possibility of a second Trump term also raises questions about the future of US influence in the Middle East. During his first term, Trump’s policies often appeared to prioritize immediate strategic and economic gains over long-term stability and peace. This approach, while benefiting certain regimes, has contributed to a perception of the US as an unreliable partner willing to shift policies based on short-term interests. This could drive Arab states to seek more stable and predictable alliances elsewhere, further diminishing US influence in the region.
Analyzing the potential long-term impacts on US foreign policy and how future administrations might navigate the legacy of Trump's policies would provide a comprehensive understanding. This includes considering how the Biden administration’s policies might contrast with Trump's and what a potential Trump successor would inherit in terms of geopolitical challenges.
The shift towards strategic autonomy and diversified alliances could also see Arab states enhancing their roles in regional organizations such as the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). These organizations could serve as platforms for collective action on regional issues, reducing dependency on external powers. However, the success of such efforts would depend on the ability of Arab states to overcome internal divisions and present a unified front on key issues.
In the energy sector, a second Trump term could have profound implications for the global oil market. Trump's policies have favored increased domestic oil production, often at the expense of OPEC countries. A continuation of these policies could lead to oversupply in the market, depressing oil prices and affecting the economies of oil-exporting Arab states. These countries must accelerate economic diversification efforts to reduce their reliance on oil revenues and build more resilient economies.
Furthermore, Trump's environmental policies, characterized by a rollback of regulations and a focus on fossil fuels, could clash with the growing emphasis on sustainability and renewable energy in the Arab world. Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have invested heavily in renewable energy projects as part of their Vision 2030 and Vision 2050 strategies, respectively. A second Trump term could complicate these efforts by promoting policies that favor fossil fuels over clean energy, potentially slowing down the global transition to sustainable energy sources.
Providing more detailed examples of renewable energy initiatives in the Arab world, such as Saudi Arabia's NEOM project or the UAE's Masdar City, would illustrate the region's commitment to sustainable development. Discussing how global environmental policies could interact with Trump's stance on fossil fuels would also offer a broader perspective on the potential environmental impact.
In the realm of defense and security, Trump’s approach to arms sales has been marked by a willingness to supply advanced weaponry to Arab allies, often with fewer restrictions than previous administrations. This has led to significant arms deals with countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, raising concerns about the potential for increased militarization and arms races in the region. A second Trump term could see a continuation of this trend, with implications for regional security dynamics and the balance of power.
The potential for increased arms sales also raises questions about human rights and the use of these weapons in conflicts such as those in Yemen and Libya. The US has faced criticism for its role in supplying arms to parties involved in these conflicts, and a second Trump term could see continued scrutiny of US arms sales practices. This could affect not only US-Arab relations but also broader international perceptions of the US's role in global arms trade and conflict resolution.
Final note …
Overall, the prospect of a second Trump administration presents a complex and multifaceted challenge for the Arab world. While some regimes might see opportunities in Trump’s deal-making approach, the broader implications for regional stability, economic development, and US-Arab relations could be deeply unsettling. As the Arab world navigates this potential future, the emphasis on strategic autonomy, diversified alliances, and internal reforms will be crucial in shaping a stable and prosperous regional order.
