Iran’s New Playbook: The Next Steps on the Escalation Ladder
Desperate to re-establish a credible deterrent capability, Iran may double-down on tried and tested methods, or push the envelope.
Iran’s deterrence strategy—once the terror of the region, propped up by powerful proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis as well as smaller and less capable militias—is now hobbling, visibly depleted from its engagements in the post-October 7 period. Iran’s army of foreign agents was created to influence events across the Middle East, and if necessary to keep Israel and Tehran’s other adversaries focused on their near abroad, allowing Iran to remain out of direct conflict.
But the facts on the ground have changed substantially over the past year—and particularly since Iran’s unsuccessful missile attack against Israel on April 13. Iran’s strategy of low-cost, low-risk proxy war was meant to keep its adversaries at the mercy of perpetual surprise. But as any military planner knows, a static strategy is a doomed strategy. Indeed, Israel’s technological advantage has made it evident that Iran’s strategy, once effective, can barely keep up. Tel Aviv’s ability to conduct pinpoint airstrikes and cyber attacks, as well as its possession of cutting-edge missile defense systems, has exposed the shortcomings of Iran’s playbook when tested in real-world conditions. Tehran now faces an no-win choice: adjust to the game’s new rules, or accept defeat.
